NZ Climate Facts and Figures

If you’re not too familiar with climate change, this page provides you with some background information on the issue, how New Zealand is contributing to the problem, and how our country may be affected.

What is climate change?

Climate is not the same as weather!  Climate is really the long-term weather pattern; if you like, the average weather over many (at least 30) years. 

So, if we endure endless cold and wet days in a winter or enjoy a summer full of cloudless beach days, it doesn’t necessarily mean the climate is changing.  But, if our summers are generally getting warmer than it indicates a change in climate.

Our climate is influenced by various factors, including the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere.  Higher levels of greenhouse gases mean a warmer world – the “Greenhouse Effect”. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the main greenhouse gases, along with methane and nitrous oxide. 

CO2 is released into the atmosphere when we burn fossil fuels (like coal and gas for electricity, petrol for transport) and when we cut down trees.  Amongst other sources, methane comes from livestock (like cows and sheep) and landfills, and nitrous oxide comes from soils, especially those treated with man-made fertiliser.

Before the industrial revolution changed the world in the 19th century, the level of CO2 was about 280 parts per million (ppm).  Because of all the deforestation and the amount of fossil fuels we’ve burned, it is now about 390ppm, and rising.  Many top climate scientists think that the safe long-term upper limit for CO2 is about 350ppm (this is why we’re called 350!)

What contribution is NZ making?

In New Zealand, the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) we’ve released into the atmosphere have grown by nearly 23% since 1990. (1990 is important as it is the year used for international comparisons.)  Along with Australia (31% growth), this makes us one of the fastest growing of the “western” countries.  Only the recent recession has slowed the growth in emissions, both here and overseas.

As a country we produce less than half of one percent of global emissions.  But, we rank very high when taking into account our small population and size of economy.  Amongst the main industrialised (OECD) countries, we are ranked in the top five both for emissions per unit of economic output (GDP) and for emissions per person. 

(Note, the above figures exclude emissions associated with landuse change, such as changes in the amount of forested land.)

Where do our emissions come from?

We have an unusual emissions profile, with agricultural emissions (from our livestock and soils) accounting for nearly half the emissions, with transport and other energy use accounting for most of the remainder.

Because of our hydro lakes, historically we have had relatively low emissions from electricity generation. 

But, since 1990 our emissions from the electricity sector have risen an astonishing 91% - yes, nearly doubled!  As we’ve used more and more things which need electricity, most of the increased demand has been met by burning more gas and coal to produce the extra electricity.  There is some good news, we’re beginning to use more of our wind and geothermal resources to produce electricity.

And, the other big increase since 1990 has been from road transport.  Our continued love affair with the car, and the decline in use of public transport, has caused these emissions to increase by 76% since 1990.  Again, there is some good news, with the success of public transport projects like the Northern Busway in Auckland.  But we need more projects like them!

For more information on our emissions, visit this site - http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/greenhouse-gas-inventory-2010/index.html

What impact could climate change have on NZ?

Some might argue that a warmer world would make New Zealand a better place to live.  But, there are likely to be some serious impacts from climate change.

A key report, published in 2007 by the international climate change body (IPCC), concluded that rainfall will reduce in Northland and in some eastern regions, leading to water shortage risk. They also reported that some coastal areas from Northland to the Bay of Plenty were at risk from sea-level rise and increases in the severity of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. However, at least initially, there may be benefits in western and southern areas due to a longer growing season, less frost and increased rainfall.

The IPCC concluded that although New Zealand has the ability to cope with the changed conditions, mainly because we are relatively wealthy, there will still be major challenges from extreme events.
In addition, our country is likely to be affected from the disruption caused by climate change in other areas of the world.  This may well result in serious problems for established international systems, including trade, and pressure on borders, from migration of peoples from severely affected areas.

So, what are the key messages?

Whilst we are not a large producer of GHGs in international terms, our emissions have grown significantly and continue to grow, especially from electricity and transport.

We may not suffer too many severe direct problems from climate change, but we are very likely to suffer indirectly, from the disruption caused in other areas of the world.  We live in an interconnected world, the more problems there are in the world, the more we will be affected.


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Content kindly provided by Phil Jones, Carbon Group. For enquiries on the information provided, please contact Phil at philj@co2group.co.nz
 

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